Conservatives Narrow Gap on Liberals Despite Carney’s High Approval: New Electoral Projections

Poliwave.com September 23rd Federal Electoral Model Update | CPC Gains Ground on LPC

Federal Polling Average (Poliwave.com)

The State of Liberals

The Liberal Party has been dominating federal polling throughout the summer, but that trend is gradually shifting as more polls show the Conservative Party narrowing the gap with the Liberals since late August. At the height of summer, a Nanos poll had the Liberals leading by an impressive 15%, projecting them to win over 200 seats. However, the most recent Nanos rolling poll, ending on September 19th, now shows their lead reduced to little bit under 5%. This pattern is evident across various pollsters, from Research Co. to Angus Reid and even EKOS. While these pollsters may differ on whether the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives or the extent of that lead, they all agree on one key point: the Liberals’ popularity is slipping.

For Prime Minister Mark Carney, though, the story remains different—his approval rating continues to ride high, ranging from 56% in latest Research Co. poll to 50% in latest Angus Reid poll.

You can see up there Carney’s Approval Rating are consistently higher than Liberal voting intention

But Why?

The primary reason lies in the fact that most Canadians still see Mark Carney as a seasoned, statesman-like figure who led two central banks across two countries. This reputation has been a key factor in his party’s re-election, despite widespread distrust in the Liberal Party of Canada after a decade under Trudeau. Carney emerged as the ideal leader for the Liberals at the right moment. However, as Canadians shift their focus from Donald Trump and the trade war to the upcoming fall budget, their perception of Carney may evolve further, for better or for worse.

Federal Polling Average Update

🔴LIB: 40.9% (-0.2%)

🔵CON: 38.7% (-)

🟠NDP: 9.3% (-0.3%)

🔷BQ: 6.8% (+0.5%)

🟢GRN: 2.3% (+0.4%)

🟣PPC: 1.4% (+0.1%)

(+/- change from September 6th)

Explore the latest poll averages on my website, featuring comprehensive polling data for all regions and demographics, from the 18-29 age group to Saskatchewan.

Compared to a few weeks ago, the Liberals have slipped slightly while Conservative support has gained slightly. On a broader timescale, though, the Conservatives have gained about 2-3% in the polls since late July.

Federal Model Update

Federal Electoral Model Update | (September 23th)

🔴LIB: 164 seats (-4)

🔵CON: 137 seats (-1)

🔷BQ: 27 seats (+3)

🟠NDP: 13 seats (+2)

🟢GRN: 2 seats (-)

🔴Liberal Minority Government

(+/- change from last update on September 6th)

Check out details about the projection on my website

Compared to two weeks ago, the numbers have barely shifted, but the Liberals have dropped significantly from their peak of 190 seats on August 13th. Overall, my projections show the Liberals continuing to slip, while other parties have made slight gains over the past month.

Electoral Projections Map/Table

New Stuffs on my website

I’ve added a ton of new features to my website since the summer break, with school winding down, I’ve had time to shift my focus entirely to Poliwave. As you might know, I built Canada’s first true electoral simulator, where you can plug in any numbers for the parties and get instant results. Whether it’s a standard scenario like the Conservatives overtaking the Liberals in Ontario, or something wild like the Greens polling at 20% federally, you can simulate it all in seconds. If you haven’t tried it yet, I highly recommend giving it a go; it’s completely free, and it took me two months to build from the ground up.

Link: https://www.poliwave.com/ca/fed/simulator

I’ve also created Canada’s most comprehensive federal polling average page (though it currently covers polls from April 28th onward). It includes nearly everything, from polling averages in British Columbia to insights on university-educated voters.

Link: https://www.poliwave.com/ca/fed/polls